Plan your trading strategy around the Economic Release Calendar

Investors need to carefully track when payment is due for the securities they buy. Lack of funds could result in failed transactions.

Multiplying uncertainties about President Trump's tariffs and their impact on business and the economy will remain the focus on Thursday. On Wednesday, markets were rattled by news, confirmed later, that Trump would announce a 25 percent tax on imported autos. This followed Trump's threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan oil. Analysts estimate the planned auto tariffs will raise prices on vehicles by thousands of dollars, though it's hard to know yet. Markets are tracking an ongoing flow of reports about threatened reciprocal tariffs that were scheduled for announcement on April 2, though the schedule seems less certain.
In ordinary global macro news on Thursday, investors will watch for comments from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin due at 4:30 pm ET, and from Boston Fed President Susan Collins at the same time.

In February 2025, the euro area witnessed a modest but broad-based strengthening in monetary dynamics. The annual growth rate of M3 rose to 4.0 percent, up from 3.8 percent in January, and the average three-month growth rate of 3.8 percent to February was driven primarily by stronger expansion in M1 (3.5 percent) and a surge in marketable instruments (19.8 percent). While short-term deposits (M2-M1) slowed to 2.0 percent, the increase in M1's contribution (2.2 percentage points) suggests a rising preference for liquidity among households and firms. Lending activity also gained traction, with adjusted loans to households and non-financial corporations rising to 1.5 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, reflecting improved credit conditions.
On the asset side, claims on the private sector and net external assets contributed positively to M3 growth, at 2.2 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively, hinting at stronger domestic demand and favourable external balances. Household deposits edged up to 3.4 percent, while non-financial corporations' deposits rose to 3.5 percent, reinforcing stable confidence across sectors. Remarkably, deposits by investment funds surged to 8.5 percent, indicating possible repositioning toward more liquid assets. Overall, the data portrays a cautiously improving financial environment, with both money supply and credit dynamics signalling resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainties. The latest update leaves the RPI at minus 17 and the RPI-P at minus 16, indicating that economic activities remain below market expectations for the euro area economy.

This report allows analysts to monitor export activity for US agricultural products, including actively -traded contracts like corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton, pork and beef. The report tracks sales and physical exports for the week ending the prior Thursday.
Sales vs. Shipments
"Sales" are reported as they occur, which is often well ahead of the actual export date. They can be cancelled, too. Sales are sometimes reported for the following marketing year, and as the end of a year approaches, the sales for the next year increase. At the end of a given year, any sales that have not been shipped are moved into the next year's tally.
Analysts often track the amount of unshipped sales. If that number is unusually high, analysts may wonder about potential cancellations.
Similar to the Export Inspections report, analysts like to compare the current year's export sales pace with previous years. They also measure the pace of sales against the USDA's export forecast for the entire marketing year. For example, if cumulative US soybean export sales have reached 45% of the USDA's forecast for the entire marketing year, while the five-year average for that week was only 40%, it would suggest that exports are running stronger than what the USDA has forecast. This could draw an analyst to conclude that the USDA will revise its export forecast higher in future Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports.
This report also includes detail on which countries made the purchases. This includes"unknown," which analysts often infer to be China.
This report is not as timely as the Export Inspections report, as comes three days later and is a full week after the"as of" date. However, it covers many more products, including soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton, pork and several others. And because it presents sales as well as exports, it is more forward-looking.

After tax corporate profits rise 12.1 percent to $3.631 trillion at an annualized rate in the fourth quarter from the year-ago quarter and are revised higher from the preliminary report.
When including inventory valuation and consumption adjustments, after-tax profits of $3.312 trillion in the fourth quarter are down 6.8 percent compared to the same quarter a year ago and are revised higher.
Taxes on corporate income are up 7.2 percent at a $694.9 billion annual rate and up 7.2 percent when compared to the year-ago quarter.

The advance wholesale inventories report shows an increase of 0.3 percent for February from January. Durable goods inventories rose 0.3 percent on the month while nondurables were up 0.5 percent.

The goods trade gap did not narrow as much as expected in February as it came in at $147.9 billion versus the expected $135.5 billion, and versus a revised $155.7 billion in January. Imports only dipped by 0.2 percent and remained elevated at a whopping $326.5 billion and exports were $178.6 billion, up 4.1 percent on the month.
Imports of motor vehicles and parts rose another 1.2 percent on the month while consumer goods imports were up another 2.8 percent after similar strong increases in January from December. The January surge in imports was widely attributed to front-running tariffs and February looks like more of the same. With more tariffs ahead, including the latest 25 percent on autos, presumably the March report will be similar, and net exports will be a big drag on 1Q GDP.

Retail inventories edged up by 0.1 percent in February from January. The January figure was revised to up 0.1 percent from December from the preliminary estimate of virtually unchanged.
Retail inventories excluding motor vehicles and parts rose 0.1 percent on the month in February while motor vehicles and parts were flat.

The third estimate of fourth quarter GDP shows growth up 2.4 percent compared to the prior quarter. The increase matches the consensus of up 2.4 percent in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The third estimate is a negligible upward revision from up 2.3 percent in the second estimate with revisions in the components mostly small and offsetting.
Personal consumption expenditures continue to be the largest contributor to growth in the fourth quarter (2.70) although it is revised down slightly to u p 4.0 percent. Spending on durable goods is revised a bit higher to up 12.4 percent. Nondurables is revised up a tenth to up 3.1 percent while services are revised down three-tenths to up 3.0 percent. Government spending is revised up two-tenths to up 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter for positive contribution (0.52).
Gross investment is little revised at down 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter and makes a negative contribution (-1.03). While nonresidential fixed investment is down 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter, residential investment is up 5.5 percent. Spending on commercial real estate remains weak while consumers continue to buy homes, especially on dips in mortgage rates.
Net exports made a positive contribution (0.26) to GDP in the fourth quarter with a narrower deficit of $920.1 billion compared to a deficit of $943.7 billion in the prior quarter. The change in private inventories is a negative contribution (-0.84) with inventories down to $13.6 billion in the fourth quarter after $76.0 billion in third quarter.
With the fourth quarter well in the rear view and the first quarter 2025 nearly over, the moderate growth at the end of 2024 is less of interest than what is happening now. GDP Nowcasts from three Fed district banks are not telling a cohesive story. The latest forecast from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast the most reliable of the early estimates is for a decline of 1.8 percent in the first quarter. However, that seems to be greatly influenced by the big widening in the international trade deficit in January. The St. Louis Fed's GDP Nowcast if for growth of 2.25 percent in the first quarter. The New York Fed's Staff Nowcast is for a solid 2.72 percent in the first quarter. The bottom line is that these forecasts are heavily reliant on an incomplete set of data which encompasses January and only some February reports.

Initial jobless claims came in close to expectations in the latest week, declining by 1,000 in the week ending March 22 from the revised 225,000 level (previously 223,000) reported for the prior week. The March 22 week's level compares to the consensus of 225,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The four-week moving average is down by 4,750 to 224,000 in the March 15 week, after 228,750 in the prior week.
Seasonal factors had expected a decline in unadjusted claims of 7,214 (-3.5 percent) from the previous week, but they fell by 8,481 (-4.1 percent), instead.
Michigan was the only state with a significant decline in unadjusted first-time claims. No states reported noticeable increases.
Insured unemployment fell 25,000 in the March 15 week to 1.856 million, from a downwardly revised 1.881 million in the prior week but continuing claims are higher by 54,000 compared to the same week a year ago, underscoring the soft hiring conditions. The four-week moving average is up by 2,250 to 1.870 million, from a revised 1.868 million in the March 8 week. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.2 percent in the March 15 week.
Initial claims have settled at a 224,00 average so far in March, but the elevated level of continuing claims (yet to drop below 1.8 million since June 2024), underlines the precarious balance of risks to the U.S. economy.

The NAR's pending home sales index is up 2.0 percent to 72.0 in February after an unrevised 70.6 in January. The increase is somewhat below the consensus of up 2.9 percent in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The index is down 3.4 percent from February 2024. The increase in February is concentrated in contracts taken out in the South where the index is up 6.2 percent from the prior month. This may reflect a bounce back from cold weather in January. Elsewhere, the index for the Midwest is up 0.7 percent, while down 0.9 percent in the Northeast and 3.0 percent in the West.
Pending home sales are those for contract signed in the month which will close in the coming month or two. The pace of contracts signed remains relatively modest despite moderation in mortgage rates. There may be some hesitancy to enter the housing market in the current uncertain economic outlook with its attendant worries about job security.
The Freddie Mac weekly rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage reached a near term peak of 7.04 percent in the January 16 week. It has fallen steadily since then to a low of 6.76 percent in February and 6.63 in the March 6 week.

Natural gas in storage increased by a seasonal 37 billion cubic feet to 1,744 in the March 21 week from 1,707 bcf in the prior week as withdrawal season and winter weather have given way to spring when stocks tend to rise. Natural gas in storage is down by 557 bcf or 24.2 percent from 2,301 bcf in the year-ago week. Compared with the 5-year average of 1,866 bcf, natural gas stocks in the latest week are down 122 bcf or 6.5 percent.

Individual investors can participate in Treasury auctions either through a securities dealer (brokerage firm) or via the Treasury Direct program, which saves on brokerage commissions. But brokers commissions are often nominal (especially with discount brokers), and using a broker does eliminate a lot of paper work and other administrative hassles. Brokers facilitate the purchases and sales of Treasuries in the secondary market, which is handy for buying Treasuries at times other than scheduled auctions or for maturities other than those offered by standard new issues.
Interest rates on Treasury securities are determined in the market; the Federal Reserve does not set them. However, bond investors are sensitive to Federal Reserve policy and thus market rates will mirror policy expectations. Usually, bond market players are forward-looking and this means that interest rates on Treasury securities will move in the direction of Fed policy with a lead. As a result, one is more likely to see rising interest rates on Treasury yields during an expansion (and falling yields during economic slowdowns) in advance of policy changes by the Federal Reserve.
Primer on Treasuries
Treasury securities, Treasuries, U.S. government bonds, T-bonds, T-notes, and T-bills all refer to the same type of security: debt obligations of the United States. Maturity refers to the length of the loan to the government. Treasury bills have maturities from four weeks to 52 weeks. Cash management bills (CMBs) are auctioned occasionally, depending on the Treasury's borrowing needs. These are often for short-term needs such as 12 to 14 days. Since 2008, the Treasury ruled that all securities it issues now have minimum denominations of $100 and must be purchased in increments of $100.
How bills work
Since they mature so quickly, bills are simply sold at a discount to their face value at maturity. The interest is the difference between the purchase price of the security and what the Treasury pays at maturity. For example, if you bought a 3-month bill for $9,800 and received $10,000 at maturity, the interest payment would be $200.
Investment Profile
Treasuries offer a measure of security unmatched by other investments - the U.S. government guarantees the initial investment (the principal) and interest payments. When Treasuries are resold in the secondary market, their prices are often significantly different than their face value since prices in the secondary market fluctuate based on the economic environment, inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and simple forces of supply and demand.

Individual investors can participate in Treasury auctions either through a securities dealer (brokerage firm) or via the Treasury Direct program, which saves on brokerage commissions. But brokers commissions are often nominal (especially with discount brokers), and using a broker does eliminate a lot of paper work and other administrative hassles. Brokers facilitate the purchases and sales of Treasuries in the secondary market, which is handy for buying Treasuries at times other than scheduled auctions or for maturities other than those offered by standard new issues.
Interest rates on Treasury securities are determined in the market; the Federal Reserve does not set them. However, bond investors are sensitive to Federal Reserve policy and thus market rates will mirror policy expectations. Usually, bond market players are forward-looking and this means that interest rates on Treasury securities will move in the direction of Fed policy with a lead. As a result, one is more likely to see rising interest rates on Treasury yields during an expansion (and falling yields during economic slowdowns) in advance of policy changes by the Federal Reserve.
Primer on Treasuries
Treasury securities, Treasuries, U.S. government bonds, T-bonds, T-notes, and T-bills all refer to the same type of security: debt obligations of the United States. Maturity refers to the length of the loan to the government. Treasury bills have maturities from four weeks to 52 weeks. Cash management bills (CMBs) are auctioned occasionally, depending on the Treasury's borrowing needs. These are often for short-term needs such as 12 to 14 days. Since 2008, the Treasury ruled that all securities it issues now have minimum denominations of $100 and must be purchased in increments of $100.
How bills work
Since they mature so quickly, bills are simply sold at a discount to their face value at maturity. The interest is the difference between the purchase price of the security and what the Treasury pays at maturity. For example, if you bought a 3-month bill for $9,800 and received $10,000 at maturity, the interest payment would be $200.
Investment Profile
Treasuries offer a measure of security unmatched by other investments - the U.S. government guarantees the initial investment (the principal) and interest payments. When Treasuries are resold in the secondary market, their prices are often significantly different than their face value since prices in the secondary market fluctuate based on the economic environment, inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and simple forces of supply and demand.

Individual investors can participate in Treasury auctions either through a securities dealer (brokerage firm) or via the Treasury Direct program, which saves on brokerage commissions. But brokers’ commissions are often nominal (especially with discount brokers), and using a broker does eliminate a lot of paper work and other administrative hassles. Brokers facilitate the purchases and sales of Treasuries in the secondary market, which is handy for buying Treasuries at times other than scheduled auctions or for maturities other than those offered by standard new issues.
Interest rates on Treasury securities are determined in the market; the Federal Reserve does not set them. However, bond investors are sensitive to Federal Reserve policy and thus market rates will mirror policy expectations. Usually, bond market players are forward-looking and this means that interest rates on Treasury securities will move in the direction of Fed policy with a lead. As a result, one is more likely to see rising interest rates on Treasury yields during an expansion (and falling yields during economic slowdowns) in advance of policy changes by the Federal Reserve.
Primer on Treasuries
Treasury securities, Treasuries, U.S. government bonds, T-bonds, T-notes, and T-bills all refer to the same type of security: debt obligations of the United States. Maturity refers to the length of the loan to the government. Treasury bills have maturities from four weeks to 52 weeks. Cash management bills (CMBs) are auctioned occasionally, depending on the Treasury's borrowing needs. These are often for short-term needs such as 12 to 14 days. Since 2008, the Treasury ruled that all securities it issues now have minimum denominations of $100 and must be purchased in increments of $100.
How bills work
Since they mature so quickly, bills are simply sold at a discount to their face value at maturity. The interest is the difference between the purchase price of the security and what the Treasury pays at maturity. For example, if you bought a 3-month bill for $9,800 and received $10,000 at maturity, the interest payment would be $200.
Investment Profile
Treasuries offer a measure of security unmatched by other investments - the U.S. government guarantees the initial investment (the principal) and interest payments. When Treasuries are resold in the secondary market, their prices are often significantly different than their face value since prices in the secondary market fluctuate based on the economic environment, inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and simple forces of supply and demand.

Kansas City Fed district manufacturing activity continues its slow decline in March but at a slower rate of contraction after months of sequential declines to lower overall levels of activity. The Kansas City Fed composite index of current business conditions is at minus 2 versus minus 5 in February, minus 5 in January and minus 5 in December. New orders, the leading indicator, are weaker while price pressures accelerate further in March.
The composite index of six-month expectations for business conditions registers 10 in March versus 14 in February, 15 in January and 17 in December. That suggests a moderately positive outlook despite weakening current conditions.
The current new orders index is at minus 12 in March versus minus 7 in February, minus 6 in January and minus 16 in December. Production is at 1 in March, up from minus 13 in February, minus 6 in January and minus 5 in December.
The number of employees index registers minus 4 versus minus 14 in February, 1 in January, 0 in December.
Prices paid comes in at 42 versus 38 in February, 18 in January. Prices received are at 15 in March, 17 in February, 14 in January, 8 in December.

This report presents a quarterly accounting of hog and pig inventory and of the quarterly pig crop, i.e. pig production. It is the most complete information on pig supply that the USDA produces.
Inventory numbers are reported as of the first day of the month that the report is released. These numbers are not projections; they represent current supply data based on statistical surveys of hog producers. The report includes weight breakdowns, which is helpful in determining the how close hogs are to finishing and ready for slaughter. There is also a breakdown between the number that have been kept for breeding and those that will be sent to market. The “kept for breeding” number provides insight about herd expansion or contraction, while the “market” number provides information on more immediate supply. State-by-state breakdown are included as well.
In addition to the inventory numbers, the report presents quarterly pig crop, sows farrowing, and pigs per litter data. These numbers provide insight into hog production. Data on the previous two years is included, as well as forecasts for the next two quarters.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivers the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economy at Washington and Lee University.

Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks on the economy and monetary policy in a fireside chat sponsored by the Insurance Women's Investment Network (IWIN), 100 Women in Finance (100WF), and Wellington Management.

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI).
Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction.
The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.
The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.

If investors want to know how the business or consumer sectors are performing as they evaluate their investment decisions, they can find timely and in depth information in the latest Istat surveys. Although short-term swings can be erratic, changes in trends in confidence can contain very useful information about a sector’s underlying health well in advance of the release of the official data. Moreover, by including some forward-looking components (e.g. manufacturing orders or consumer buying intentions) the Istat surveys can also provide a potential insight into prospective developments.

The CPI has been in the spotlight as Japan struggled to make its way out of deflation. It is now closely monitored because the recent spike in energy and commodity markets and supply chain constraints during the global pandemic boosted Japan’s inflation rate to the highest in over four decades in 2022.
The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. The preferred measure is the year over year percent change. Markets will typically pay more attention to the core measure that excludes only fresh food because volatile food prices can distort overall CPI. A second core measure that excludes energy as well is also available. As the most important inflation indicator, the CPI data are closely monitored by the Bank of Japan. Rising consumer prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the yen.
An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to government securities. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.