Economic Release
US: Jobless Claims
Date: March 27, 2025 07:30 AM CT
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims - Level | 225K | 217K to 230K | 224K | 223K | 225K |
| Initial Claims - Change | -1K | 2K | 2K | ||
| 4-Week Moving Average | 224K | 227K | 228.75K |
Highlights
Initial jobless claims came in close to expectations in the latest week, declining by 1,000 in the week ending March 22 from the revised 225,000 level (previously 223,000) reported for the prior week. The March 22 week's level compares to the consensus of 225,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The four-week moving average is down by 4,750 to 224,000 in the March 15 week, after 228,750 in the prior week.
Seasonal factors had expected a decline in unadjusted claims of 7,214 (-3.5 percent) from the previous week, but they fell by 8,481 (-4.1 percent), instead.
Michigan was the only state with a significant decline in unadjusted first-time claims. No states reported noticeable increases.
Insured unemployment fell 25,000 in the March 15 week to 1.856 million, from a downwardly revised 1.881 million in the prior week but continuing claims are higher by 54,000 compared to the same week a year ago, underscoring the soft hiring conditions. The four-week moving average is up by 2,250 to 1.870 million, from a revised 1.868 million in the March 8 week. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.2 percent in the March 15 week.
Initial claims have settled at a 224,00 average so far in March, but the elevated level of continuing claims (yet to drop below 1.8 million since June 2024), underlines the precarious balance of risks to the U.S. economy.
Seasonal factors had expected a decline in unadjusted claims of 7,214 (-3.5 percent) from the previous week, but they fell by 8,481 (-4.1 percent), instead.
Michigan was the only state with a significant decline in unadjusted first-time claims. No states reported noticeable increases.
Insured unemployment fell 25,000 in the March 15 week to 1.856 million, from a downwardly revised 1.881 million in the prior week but continuing claims are higher by 54,000 compared to the same week a year ago, underscoring the soft hiring conditions. The four-week moving average is up by 2,250 to 1.870 million, from a revised 1.868 million in the March 8 week. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.2 percent in the March 15 week.
Initial claims have settled at a 224,00 average so far in March, but the elevated level of continuing claims (yet to drop below 1.8 million since June 2024), underlines the precarious balance of risks to the U.S. economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Claims are seen at 225K after rising 2K to 223K in the previous week, consistent with a surprisingly stable jobs market.
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.
Description
Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.
By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
