Economic Release
HK: PMI
Date: April 2, 2025 07:30 PM CT
| Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|
| Index | 48.3 | 49.0 |
Highlights
The S&P Global Hong Kong PMI survey indicates that Hong Kong's economy contracted in March for the second consecutive month after four consecutive months of modest expansion previously. The headline index fell to a nine-month low of 48.3 from 49.0 in February, with the survey showing weaker current conditions and greater pessimism about the outlook.
Survey respondents reported a modest rise in output but sharp declines in new orders, and new export orders in March, with some citing concerns about the impact of United States tariffs on external demand. Payrolls were also cut while the survey's measure of business confidence also fell to its lowest level since November 2020, with US trade policy again cited as a cause for concern. The survey shows margins tightened further, with respondents reporting a bigger increase in input costs but the biggest fall in selling prices since February 2021.
Survey respondents reported a modest rise in output but sharp declines in new orders, and new export orders in March, with some citing concerns about the impact of United States tariffs on external demand. Payrolls were also cut while the survey's measure of business confidence also fell to its lowest level since November 2020, with US trade policy again cited as a cause for concern. The survey shows margins tightened further, with respondents reporting a bigger increase in input costs but the biggest fall in selling prices since February 2021.
Definition
The Nikkei Hong Kong PMI is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 300 companies. The panel is stratified by company size and by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) group, based on industry contribution to Hong Kong GDP. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. For each of the indicators the ‘Report’ shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of higher/better responses and lower/worse responses, and the ‘diffusion’ index. This index is the sum of the positive responses plus a half of those responding ‘the same’.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a composite index based on five of the individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders - 0.3, Output - 0.25, Employment - 0.2, Suppliers’ Delivery Times - 0.15, Stock of Items Purchased - 0.1, with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction.
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below 50 an overall decrease.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a composite index based on five of the individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders - 0.3, Output - 0.25, Employment - 0.2, Suppliers’ Delivery Times - 0.15, Stock of Items Purchased - 0.1, with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction.
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below 50 an overall decrease.
Description
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
