Plan your trading strategy around the Economic Release Calendar

On a day with not much on the schedule, an interview with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on CNBC at 8:30 am ET may attract extra interest. Goolsbee is bound to be pressed for more on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments last week that US tariffs are bound to prove inflationary and will slow the economy. By how much? And he will be asked to respond to President Trump's evident threat to remove Powell from his post. Goolsbee is likely to repeat the Fed's mantra: The Fed will make its policy decisions based on economic data, and independent central banks deliver the best results.
Of course, if President Trump makes trade news, it will overwhelm everything else. Meanwhile, markets are watching the unfolding US constitutional crisis over whether the Trump administration will implement court orders to return Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the man who was mistakenly deported to an El Salvador prison. Financial markets are obliged to reckon with the possibility that the rule of law no longer obtains in the US, alongside the notion that the US is no longer allied with its traditional friends, including Canada, Mexico, Western Europe, Japan, and Australia. These concerns are undercutting the appeal of US assets and the dollar.

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee is interviewed on CNBC.

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly -- and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves.

This report provides a weekly update of US exports of corn, wheat and soybeans. The data compiled in this report is a measure of actual exports leaving the country. Exports are covered in greater detail in the weekly Export Sales report, which is released on Thursday, but because this report is released out on Mondays, it offers an earlier glimpse of the week’s exports.
This report presents export inspections data for the week ending the previous Thursday. It also includes the data from the previous week and a year ago. It includes cumulative data for the current marketing year and the cumulative number for the same week a year ago.
Analysts like to compare the current year’s export inspections pace with previous years. They also measure the pace against the USDA’s export forecast for the entire marketing year. For example, if cumulative US soybean export inspections have reached 45% of the USDA’s forecast for the entire marketing year, while the five-year average for that week was only 40%, it would suggest that exports are running stronger than what the USDA has forecast. This could draw an analyst to conclude that the USDA will revise its export forecast higher in future Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports.
The reports also include detail on the destinations for the exports, which is helpful when tracking certain customers (China for example) whose buying patterns may be of particular interest.

These reports offer weekly analysis of the progress and condition of the crops. State-by-state data is provided, which is aggregated into a number that covers the key producing states that make up the majority of the US crop.
Crop Progress is measured by stages and percentage of completion. This includes percent planted, percent harvested, and several stages in between. Some of the stages vary from crop to crop. For example, intermediate stages for corn include emergence, silk, dough, dent, and maturity, while the stages for soybeans include emergence, bloom, setting pods, and dropping leaves. The reports compare the current week with the same period in the previous year and with the 5-year average.
Inclement weather in the spring can delay planting, which could ultimately lower the production for that year. For corn, producers may be forced to pick faster-growing but lower-yielding seed varieties if planting gets delayed. In some cases, they may switch to soybeans, which have a shorter growing season. If it is excessively hot and dry during the corn silking stage, yields could drop, and a delayed start to the season could push silking later in the summer and increase the odds of that happening. A key stage to watch for soybeans in pod-filling, as excessively dry weather during that stage could result in smaller beans and lower yield. If the crops are late, there is an increased chance of frost before the plants have matured, which can also reduce yield.
Crop Conditions are measured by five categories: Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor and Very Poor. As a rule of thumb, analysts tend to focus on the percentage that is in the good and excellent categories (“Good/Excellent”) and to a lesser extent to “Poor/Very Poor.” The reports include data on the current week, the previous week, and a year prior.
Analysts look at the weekly conditions data during the growing season to get an idea on how the crop is performing relative to previous years. If the crop conditions are poor, analysts may want to reduce their production estimates, and vice-versa if the crop conditions are strong. Analysts may also look at individual states’ conditions in light of the weather those areas are experiencing.

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the NZ dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods in New Zealand. Exports show the demand for NZ goods in countries overseas. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade deficit run by New Zealand since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation.