Economic Release
CN: PMI Composite
Date: April 2, 2025 08:45 PM CT
| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 51.8 | 51.5 | ||
| Services Index | 51.9 | 51.4 | 51.6 | 51.3 to 51.7 |
Highlights
The S&P Global PMI composite index for China rose to 51.8 in March, picking up from 51.5 in February and indicating modest growth in the Chinese economy in the first quarter of the year. The business activity index for China's services sector rose to 51.9 from 51.4, while the headline index for the manufacturing PMI survey, published earlier in the week, also indicated conditions improved in the sector. Official PMI survey data showed some improvement in both the manufacturing and the non-manufacturing sector in March.
Respondents to today's service sector survey reported stronger growth in output and new orders but little change in new export orders in March. The survey showed the third reduction in payrolls in the last four months and its measure of confidence fell. Respondents also reported a marginal increase in input costs and another small reduction in selling prices.
Today's data were stronger than the consensus forecast of 51.6 for the survey's services index. The China RPI rose from plus 57 to plus 70 while the RPI-P was unchanged at plus 100, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in well above consensus forecasts.
Respondents to today's service sector survey reported stronger growth in output and new orders but little change in new export orders in March. The survey showed the third reduction in payrolls in the last four months and its measure of confidence fell. Respondents also reported a marginal increase in input costs and another small reduction in selling prices.
Today's data were stronger than the consensus forecast of 51.6 for the survey's services index. The China RPI rose from plus 57 to plus 70 while the RPI-P was unchanged at plus 100, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in well above consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters expect the PMI services at 51.6 in March versus 51.4 in February.
Definition
The S&P China Services PMI is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private service sector companies. The panel has been carefully selected to accurately replicate the true structure of the services economy.
The S&P China Composite PMI is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index, and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of over 800 companies based in the Chinese manufacturing and service sectors.
The S&P China Composite PMI is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index, and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of over 800 companies based in the Chinese manufacturing and service sectors.
Description
The PMIs have developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
