Economic Release
IT: CPI
Date: March 31, 2025 04:00 AM CT
| Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Year over Year | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| HICP - M/M | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| HICP - Y/Y | 2.1% | 1.7% |
Highlights
The provisional consumer prices rose 0.4 percent on the month in March while annual inflation was 2.0 percent, up from February 1.6 percent.
The HICP, which, unlike the CPI, accounts for seasonal factors like summer sales, provisionally increased 1.6 percent on the month. The annual rate also increased at 2.1 percent.
March's increase in annual CPI was largely due to higher rates in non-regulated energy products (from minus 1.9 percent to 1.3 percent), tobacco (from 4.1 percent to 4.6 percent), unprocessed food (from 2.9 percent to 3.3 percent), communication (from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent), and recreation and personal care (from 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent) . This overshadowed the decrease in rates of regulated energy products (from 31.4 percent to 27.3 percent), and transportation (from 1.9 percent to 1.6 percent).
March's annual core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and fresh food, was stable at 1.7 percent.
Prices of groceries and unprocessed foods continue to increase (up 0.1 percent on the month and up from 2.0 percent to 2.1 percent on the year). However, the narrow core HICP rate is still below the 2.0 percent target (at 1.5 percent) showing that Italian inflation shouldn't worry the ECB for the time being.
The HICP, which, unlike the CPI, accounts for seasonal factors like summer sales, provisionally increased 1.6 percent on the month. The annual rate also increased at 2.1 percent.
March's increase in annual CPI was largely due to higher rates in non-regulated energy products (from minus 1.9 percent to 1.3 percent), tobacco (from 4.1 percent to 4.6 percent), unprocessed food (from 2.9 percent to 3.3 percent), communication (from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent), and recreation and personal care (from 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent) . This overshadowed the decrease in rates of regulated energy products (from 31.4 percent to 27.3 percent), and transportation (from 1.9 percent to 1.6 percent).
March's annual core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and fresh food, was stable at 1.7 percent.
Prices of groceries and unprocessed foods continue to increase (up 0.1 percent on the month and up from 2.0 percent to 2.1 percent on the year). However, the narrow core HICP rate is still below the 2.0 percent target (at 1.5 percent) showing that Italian inflation shouldn't worry the ECB for the time being.
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.
Description
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
