Economic Release
JP: Industrial Production
Date: March 30, 2025 06:50 PM CT
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 3.2% | 1.1% to 3.5% | 2.5% | -1.1% | |
| Year over Year | 1.3% | -1.0% to 2.6% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% |
Highlights
Japan's industrial production posted its first rise in four months in February, up 2.5% (vs. consensus +3.2%), driven by solid demand for equipment for producing semiconductors and flat panel displays as well as that for computer chips.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said nine out of the 15 industries recorded gains while six showed declines. METI's survey of producers indicated that output would edge up 0.6% in March (a rare case of the same figure after adjustment for the index's upward bias), led by a continued rise in the output of production machinery, before being nearly flat (+0.1%) in April.
From a year earlier, factory output marked the second straight gain, up 0.3%, after rebounding a partial 2.2% (revised down from 2.6%) the previous month on the 6.7% plunge in January 2024 that was triggered by suspension of all domestic production by Toyota Motor group firm Daihatsu over a vehicle safety scandal from late December until mid-February, which had a widespread impact beyond the auto industry.
The ministry maintained its assessment, saying industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back." It said it will keep a close watch on how global economic growth evolves.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said nine out of the 15 industries recorded gains while six showed declines. METI's survey of producers indicated that output would edge up 0.6% in March (a rare case of the same figure after adjustment for the index's upward bias), led by a continued rise in the output of production machinery, before being nearly flat (+0.1%) in April.
From a year earlier, factory output marked the second straight gain, up 0.3%, after rebounding a partial 2.2% (revised down from 2.6%) the previous month on the 6.7% plunge in January 2024 that was triggered by suspension of all domestic production by Toyota Motor group firm Daihatsu over a vehicle safety scandal from late December until mid-February, which had a widespread impact beyond the auto industry.
The ministry maintained its assessment, saying industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back." It said it will keep a close watch on how global economic growth evolves.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japan’s industrial production is forecast to post its first rise in four months on the month in February, up 3.2%, driven by solid export demand for vehicles from the United States as well as semiconductor-producing equipment and computer chips from Asia minus China whose economy is still dragging its feet. The index tends to rebound after a decline or two and production activity in January might have slowed ahead of the lunar new year holidays in some Asian countries that began late that month.
The monthly survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry released last month indicated that output would rebound a solid 2.3% in February, led by output of semiconductor-producing equipment and computer chips, before slipping back 2.0% in March, when vehicle and general machinery productions is seen falling.
From a year earlier, factory output is expected to mark the second straight gain, up 1.3%, after rebounding a partial 2.2% (revised down from 2.6%) on the 6.7% plunge in January 2024 that was triggered by suspension of all domestic production by Toyota Motor group firm Daihatsu over a vehicle safety scandal from late December until mid-February, which had a widespread impact beyond the auto industry.
Last month, the ministry maintained its assessment, saying industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back." It said it will keep a close watch on how global economic growth evolves.
The monthly survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry released last month indicated that output would rebound a solid 2.3% in February, led by output of semiconductor-producing equipment and computer chips, before slipping back 2.0% in March, when vehicle and general machinery productions is seen falling.
From a year earlier, factory output is expected to mark the second straight gain, up 1.3%, after rebounding a partial 2.2% (revised down from 2.6%) on the 6.7% plunge in January 2024 that was triggered by suspension of all domestic production by Toyota Motor group firm Daihatsu over a vehicle safety scandal from late December until mid-February, which had a widespread impact beyond the auto industry.
Last month, the ministry maintained its assessment, saying industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back." It said it will keep a close watch on how global economic growth evolves.
Definition
Industrial Production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Factories manufacture various products, and the industrial production indexes have been prepared as a comprehensive indicator of wide-ranging production activities for such products and are regarded as some of the most important among economic indexes.
Description
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
Industrial production provides key industry data for this export-dependent economy. The data are issued twice a month-a preliminary estimate at the end of the month for the preceding month and a revised estimate about two weeks later. All products, whether sold domestically or abroad, are included in the calculation of industrial production. Industrial production is highly sensitive to the business cycle and can often predict future changes in employment, earnings and income. For these reasons industrial production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the economy. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
Industrial production provides key industry data for this export-dependent economy. The data are issued twice a month-a preliminary estimate at the end of the month for the preceding month and a revised estimate about two weeks later. All products, whether sold domestically or abroad, are included in the calculation of industrial production. Industrial production is highly sensitive to the business cycle and can often predict future changes in employment, earnings and income. For these reasons industrial production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the economy. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
