Economic Release
CN: Industrial Production
Date: January 16, 2025 08:00 PM CT
| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.64% | 0.46% | ||
| Year over Year | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% to 5.5% |
Highlights
Chinese industrial production rose 6.2 percent on the year in December, picking up from growth of 5.4 percent in November. This is the strongest growth since April last year. Within the industrial sector, manufacturing output rose 6.1 percent on the year after increasing 6.0 percent previously. Utilities output and mining output rose 5.3 percent and 3.1 percent on the year respectively after previous increases of 1.6 percent and 4.2 percent respectively. In month-over-month terms, industrial production rose 0.64 percent after increasing 0.46 percent previously.
Today's data follow a series of policy measures announced by Chinese officials in September and October in response to ongoing weakness in the property sector and sluggish growth in consumer spending and manufacturing output. Officials lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate, cut banks' reserve requirements, and brought forward planned government spending.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy is"generally stable with steady progress", judging that conditions have"recovered remarkably" in response to their"timely" policy measures. Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were generally stronger than consensus forecasts. The China's RPI rose from minus 14 to plus 56 while the RPI-P rose from minus 30 to plus 69, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in wellt above consensus forecasts.
Today's data follow a series of policy measures announced by Chinese officials in September and October in response to ongoing weakness in the property sector and sluggish growth in consumer spending and manufacturing output. Officials lowered the seven-day reverse repo rate, cut banks' reserve requirements, and brought forward planned government spending.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy is"generally stable with steady progress", judging that conditions have"recovered remarkably" in response to their"timely" policy measures. Officials, however, provided little guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were generally stronger than consensus forecasts. The China's RPI rose from minus 14 to plus 56 while the RPI-P rose from minus 30 to plus 69, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in wellt above consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
A 5.4 percent increase is expected on year.
Definition
Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.
Description
Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.
The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
