Plan your trading strategy around the Economic Release Calendar

President Trump's big tariff unveiling now expected Wednesday afternoon remains the focus. The announcement is widely expected to bring the biggest set of protectionist measures since Smoot-Hawley, which is seen as precipitating the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Reports Tuesday said one option Trump is weighing calls for a 20 percent across the board tariff on all US imports. Another option would assign varying tariff levels to countries according to some measure of restriction each country imposes on US exports. A third option calls for tiering of tariffs, varying by product, or a combination of the second and third options. Markets are hoping for clarity, at least, on the president's plans, and if possible, a sense of how long the tariffs will last. Very problematic remains the question of what Trump is trying to accomplish.
In more typical macroeconomic news, markets will pay attention to the US ADP employment report due at 8:15 am ET Wednesday to get a sense of how the job market is faring, and an advance read on Friday's US jobs report. Expectations call for a moderate increase of 120,000 in ADP private payrolls for March. Weekly jobless claims have held pretty stable and suggest employment is holding up as firms wait for clarity on the impact of tariffs, immigration, DOGE austerity measures, and other steps from the Trump administration to remake the economy.

Motor vehicle sales jump to a 17.8 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in March after 16.0 million units in February. The March pace is well above the consensus of 16.0 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters. Sales of domestically produced motor vehicles is up to 13.6 million units in March after 12.2 million in February.
It appears that consumers are buying motor vehicles now in anticipation of higher prices related to tariffs that will affect both costs and supplies of imported parts and completed vehicles. The effect was particularly noticeable in the light trucks category. While the end-of-quarter rush to buy motor vehicles will boost consumer spending in the first quarter 2025, it will provide much less support to growth in the second quarter.
Sales of domestic passenger cars are up to 2.074 million in March from 1.960 million in February while sales of imported passenger cars is slightly higher at 1.041 million from 991,000 in the prior month. Total sales of passenger cars is up to 3.114 million units in March from 2.952 million in February.
Sales of light trucks which includes SUVs, minivans, and crossovers total 14.653 million units in March after 13.060 million units in February. Sales of domestic light trucks are 11.515 million units in March after 10.228 million units in February, while foreign built light trucks are at 3.137 million units from 2.832 million units in the prior month. Light trucks maintained their record high of an 82 percent share of all motor vehicles sales.
Sales of heavy trucks which are mainly a business investment fall to 403,000 in March after 436,000 in February and 492,000 in January. The slowing pace of purchases at an annual rate points to less spending on business equipment after a rush to get ahead of higher prices and also in higher business uncertainty and unwillingness to spend unless necessary.

The S&P Global India manufacturing PMI indicates activity in the sector gained further momentum in March, with the headline index increasing to an eight-month high of 58.1 from 56.3 in February. This is above the flash estimate of 57.6. Less timely industrial production data published last month showed stronger growth in January, with February data scheduled to be published mid-March.
PMI survey respondents reported stronger growth in output and new orders in March, but a smaller increase in new export orders. The survey also shows further growth in payrolls while its measure of business confidence also remained at a high level. Respondents reported a bigger increase in input costs but the smallest increase in selling prices in a year.

The MBA mortgage applications index is 1.6 percent lower in the March 28 week. It is 0.6 percent higher than four weeks ago and 24.5 percent higher than a year earlier. The purchase index is 1.5 percent higher in the current week and 9.5 percent higher than four weeks ago and 8.7 percent higher than a year earlier. The refinancing index is 5.6 percent lower and is 9.4 percent lower than four weeks ago and 56.6 percent higher than a year earlier. In the March 28 week, refinancing accounted for 38.6 percent of mortgage applications compared to 40.4 percent in the prior week.
Applications reflect rising home purchases as fixed rate mortgage rates are enough below 7 percent to make a meaningful difference in home affordability at a time when inventories of existing homes are rising and upward price momentum more modest. However, some buyers are opting for adjustable rates for lower initial monthly payments and in the expectation of refinancing at a lower rate later. Home refinancing activity remains soft for those who hold mortgages at lower rates.
The fixed-rate mortgage index is 1.8 percent lower in the March 28 week. It is 0.2 percent lower than four weeks ago and 25.2 percent higher than this week last year. The adjustable-rate mortgage index is 1.9 percent higher and is 12.2 percent higher than four weeks ago and 15.7 percent higher than a year ago.
The contract rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.70 percent in the current week. This is 1 basis points lower than the prior week, 3 basis points lower than four weeks ago, and 21 basis points lower than a year earlier. The contract rate for a 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage is 6.04 percent in the week. This is 15 basis points higher than the prior week, 19 basis points higher than four weeks ago, and 33 basis points lower than a year earlier. In the March 28 week, adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 6.5 percent of mortgage applications compared to 6.3 percent in the prior week.

The ADP national employment report shows private payrolls up 155,000 in March after an upward revision to up 84,000 in February. The March level is above the consensus of up 120,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
Payrolls are up 24,000 in the goods-producing sector in March with increases of 21,000 in manufacturing and 6,000 in construction, and a small dip of 3,000 in natural resources and mining. The increase in manufacturing is something of a surprise given the broad weakness in surveys of the manufacturing sector. Manufacturers may hiring some skilled workers now that the labor supply has improved and there is less competition pushing up wages.
Payrolls among service-providers are up 132,000 in March with gains in all sectors except one. There is a 6,000 decrease in trade, transportation, and utilities is likely due to job losses in retail where a major chain store has closed. The strongest gains in services payrolls are 57,000 in professional and business services and 38,000 in financial activities. These two account for 72 percent of the rise in service sector payrolls.
Payrolls increase for businesses of all sizes. Small firms (1-49 employees) added 52,000 jobs, medium establishments (50-499) added 43,000 jobs, and large establishments (500+) added 59,000 jobs.
The ADP data on pay insights put the median change in annual pay in March at up 4.6 percent for job-stayers after up 4.7 percent in February. The pace of increases for those remaining in their current job has been in a narrow range of 4.6-4.7 percent since September 2024. The March annual increase for job-changers is up 6.5 percent compared to a year ago, and down three-tenths from 6.8 percent in February. It is the lowest increase since up 6.3 percent in February 2021. While this is still a substantial pay hike, the easing in labor market conditions and economic uncertainty is reducing the incentives to switch jobs.

U.S. factory orders rose by 0.6 percent in February, following a revised 1.8 percent jump (previously +1.7 percent) in January, and a 0.6 percent decline in December. This exceeds expectations in the Econoday survey of forecasters for a 0.5 percent increase.
New orders excluding transportation rose by just 0.4 percent, however, following a 0.3 percent rise in January. They were up 0.5 percent excluding defense, slowing down from a 1.9 percent spike in January.
Manufacturers' shipments were up 0.7 percent in February following a 0.5 percent increase in January but saw just a 0.4 percent increase excluding transportation compared to a 0.3 percent uptick in January.

The Treasury conducts buybacks to improve liquidity for certain maturities, limit variations in auction sizes, and reduce maturity peaks in outstanding debt. Buybacks also allow the Treasury to replace higher-yielding debt with lower-yielding debt thereby reducing the government’s interest payments. Non-test buybacks, if substantial, could mark a shift in the Treasury’s issuance policies and in turn effect relative yields across maturities.

The Treasury conducts buybacks to improve liquidity for certain maturities, limit variations in auction sizes, and reduce maturity peaks in outstanding debt. Buybacks also allow the Treasury to replace higher-yielding debt with lower-yielding debt thereby reducing the government’s interest payments. Non-test buybacks, if substantial, could mark a shift in the Treasury’s issuance policies and in turn effect relative yields across maturities.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks virtually on"Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking" before the Griswold Center for Economic Policy Students and Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy and Finance 2025 Public Talk.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.

The PMIs have developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.

Individual investors can participate in Treasury auctions either through a securities dealer (brokerage firm) or via the Treasury Direct program, which saves on brokerage commissions. But brokers commissions are often nominal (especially with discount brokers), and using a broker does eliminate a lot of paper work and other administrative hassles. Brokers facilitate the purchases and sales of Treasuries in the secondary market, which is handy for buying Treasuries at times other than scheduled auctions or for maturities other than those offered by standard new issues.
Interest rates on Treasury securities are determined in the market; the Federal Reserve does not set them. However, bond investors are sensitive to Federal Reserve policy and thus market rates will mirror policy expectations. Usually, bond market players are forward-looking and this means that interest rates on Treasury securities will move in the direction of Fed policy with a lead. As a result, one is more likely to see rising interest rates on Treasury yields during an expansion (and falling yields during economic slowdowns) in advance of policy changes by the Federal Reserve.
Primer on Treasuries
Treasury securities, Treasuries, U.S. government bonds, T-bonds, T-notes, and T-bills all refer to the same type of security: debt obligations of the United States. Maturity refers to the length of the loan to the government. Treasury notes have maturities from 2 to 10 years (2-, 3-, 5-, 7- and 10-year notes are most common). Since 2008, the Treasury ruled that all securities it issues now have minimum denominations of $100 and must be purchased in increments of $100.
How notes work
You pay $1,000 for a note. You receive interest payments every six months based on the coupon rate. If the rate is 6%, you get $30 every six months for a total of $60/year. When the note matures in ten years, you get back the original investment of $1,000, called the principal.
Investment Profile
Treasuries offer a measure of security unmatched by other investments - the U.S. government guarantees the initial investment (the principal) and interest payments. When Treasuries are resold in the secondary market, their prices are often significantly different than their face value since prices in the secondary market fluctuate based on the economic environment, inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and simple forces of supply and demand. If a Treasury security is held to maturity, inflation and opportunity risks remain. Inflation erodes the value of both the principal and interest payments. Opportunity risk refers to what could have been earned had the money been invested elsewhere.