From Winter to Spring: Shifting Dynamics in U.S. Wheat Production
2 Min readArticle20 Mar 2025
From Winter to Spring: Shifting Dynamics in U.S. Wheat Production
At a Glance
In the last full crop year, hard red spring wheat production in northern North America exceeded that of all winter wheat varieties combined.
With the addition of physically-delivered Hard Red Spring Wheat futures and options to the CME Group Agricultural portfolio, market participants can now trade all major varieties of North American wheat on a single exchange.
Hard red spring (HRS) wheat is the overwhelmingly dominant form of spring wheat grown in the United States and the dominant form of all wheat grown in Canada.
Both Canadian and U.S. share of spring wheat have seen an upward trajectory over the past 50 years and a steady trend of growth over the past decade. In the most recent marketing year, spring wheat comprised 75% of all Canadian wheat production and nearly 26% of all U.S. wheat production.
Comparing Spring and Winter Wheat
While spring wheat has long comprised the majority of wheat produced in Canada, spring wheat in the United States is growing in relative prevalence. On an upward trend over the past decades as a share of national wheat, almost all of the spring wheat grown in the United States is classified as hard red spring.
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While winter wheat, which underlies both Chicago Wheat and Kansas City Wheat futures, is planted in the fall and harvested in late spring, spring wheat is planted in spring and harvested in late summer. Spring wheat is planted in regions with winters too severe to sustain the overwintering necessary for winter wheat.
Quality Considerations
The crisp, dry air in the U.S. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies makes spring wheat kernels shriveled, resulting in a higher protein-to-carbohydrate ratio. Due to its perceived high quality, U.S. Wheat Associates calls hard red spring wheat “the aristocrat of wheat.”
Kansas City Wheat futures are underlied by hard red winter (HRW) wheat, which is used for all-purpose flour; while Chicago Wheat futures are generally delivered against soft red winter (SRW) wheat, commonly used for pastries and finer baked goods.
The relative quality of major wheat classes is reflected by their relative prices, with HRS generally fetching the most per bushel due to its high protein content. However, supply-side factors can upend typical relationships. In the 2006/2007 crop year, production of HRW wheat, the prevalent class of wheat grown nationally, fell nearly 27% from the year prior. Hard red spring production declined as well, though not nearly as much, and the spread in average on-farm price between the two classes of wheat inverted from a 32 cent premium in 2005/2006 to a 5 cent discount in 2006/2007.
Domestic Supply at the Fore
Spring and winter wheat in the United States generally do not see geographic overlap, with spring wheat, and thus HRS, concentrated in the Northern Plains region of North Dakota and Minnesota. North Dakota’s Red River Valley, in particular, is a spring wheat powerhouse.
Domestic supply of HRS is overwhelmingly accounted for by domestic production, with imports comprising less than 10% of domestic total supply in the latest crop year, according to the USDA. In recent years, the majority of all wheat imported to the United States from Canada flowed through the U.S. Customs District of Pembina, North Dakota, with a smaller but significant portion passing through Duluth, Minnesota. In 2024, almost 44 million bushels of Canadian wheat flowed through the Pembina, North Dakota customs district. The physical delivery of Hard Red Spring Wheat futures in North Dakota and Minnesota sits at the nexus of both domestic production and Canadian importation.
Whether you want to hedge the risk or express a view behind your favorite chocolate and cream sandwich cookie (SRW), fluffy white loaf (HRW) or your local artisanal bagel (HRS), CME Group’s pantry of wheat futures and options has got you covered.
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