1 Min readArticle25 Nov 2024

Thanksgiving Dinner Costs Drop Again

At a Glance

The estimated cost of a Thanksgiving meal is down 5% from last year, though still 19% higher than it was pre-pandemic

Despite U.S. turkey inventories nearing 40-year lows, prices have decreased

It’s that time of year again. To me, Thanksgiving is about being grateful for what we have, a time to gather with friends and loved ones, and yes, eat turkey and all the trimmings. The price of a Thanksgiving dinner soared over the past few years, but last year we found some relief. How will our pocketbooks this year compare to last year’s feast?

Last year, the average cost for a dinner of 10 was $61 according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). That was down approximately 5% from a record $64.05 in 2022. Fortunately, as the pace of inflation has moderated substantially, the AFBF estimates that the cost this year will be $58.08 for 10 people, down another 5% from last year. However, this price is still 19% higher than pre-pandemic.

An interesting dynamic this year is that bird flu has cut U.S. turkey inventories to their lowest level in nearly 40 years. Farmers raised 205 million turkeys this year, 6% less than last year, yet turkey prices decreased. This decrease is having the largest impact on the overall price decline this year – a 16-pound turkey accounts for 44% of the overall Thanksgiving grocery tab and this year’s cost has dropped to $1.60 per lb. Typically lower supply would tend to raise prices but consumer demand has also fallen.

Individual item price changes from last year seem to be a bit disjointed. Here is a breakdown of pricing for some Thanksgiving favorites:

The overall decline in prices is likely a result of moderating food inflation, especially when compared to price hikes attributed to other expenses. Over the last year, food at home prices rose only 1.1% according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the same time, transportation increased by 8.2%, housing was up 4.9% and electricity cost 4.5% more.

As inflation has cooled, wages have continued to grow. The average American now needs to work fewer hours to buy the same meal than in previous years. Because average wages rose 4% from 2023-2024, it took 9% less work time for us to pay for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner. When adjusted for inflation, this is also the least expensive Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey (except for 2020). While the total cost is still above pre-pandemic levels, there’s still a lot to be thankful for.

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