CME Group Micro Gold, Silver and Copper Products Update

Highlights

Higher-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls, strong U.S. dollar and resilient U.S. economy have pressured gold price throughout January to end the month at $2,067.40/oz. (-0.2% MoM). Ongoing conflicts in the red sea and expectations of rate cuts later in 2024 have provided support to the shiny metal, even if the expectations of the timing and quantity of those cuts continue to fluctuate with data. The opposing factors in play are pulling down the managed money net position as market participants looking for more signs of direction.
Without its yellow counterpart leading the way, silver prices remained weak and closed the month down 3.8% at $23.170/oz. Managed money net position has turned negative for the first time in four months.
The recent announcement of the Chinese government to cut banks’ Required Reserve Ratio by 0.5% and the tight copper supply situation have pushed the prices up by 0.4% to settle the month at $3.9060/lb. The doubt over Chinese demand recovery in the new year and contracting Chinese manufacturing activity continues to put a cap on the upside.
Micro Gold futures (MGC) QTD average daily volume (ADV) and average daily open interest (ADOI) of 67,390 contracts and 35,977 contracts are up 6% and 12%, respectively, compared to Q4 2023. In the same period, Micro Copper futures (MHG) QTD ADV of 4,432 contracts is up 14% while ADOI of 3,126 contracts achieved historical high since launch. Market participants can tap on the liquidity growth to hedge or take positions effectively.

Micro Gold (MGC), Micro Silver (SIL) and Micro Copper (MHG) Futures Update

MGC, SIL and MHG price movement and daily range (expressed in terms of one lot notional)

*Intraday price movement is expressed as the difference between the daily high price and the daily low price multiplied by the contract notional in troy ounce (MGC and SIL) and pounds (MHG).

Options Heatmap (Change in OI from January 2 to January 31, 2024)

View current open interest and changes in volume and OI by strike, put or call, and expiration.

Key Economic Events in February/March 2024:

Key Economic Event	ET	GMT / BST	SGT / HKT
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI	Feb 1, 10.00 a.m.	Feb 1, 3.00 p.m.	Feb 1, 11.00 p.m.
U.S. Non Farm Payrolls	Feb 2, 8.30 a.m.	Feb 2, 1.30 p.m.	Feb 2, 9.30 p.m.
China Inflation Rate YoY	Feb 7, 8.30 p.m.	Feb 8, 1.30 a.m.	Feb 8, 9.30 a.m.
U.S. Inflation Numbers	Feb 13, 8.30 a.m.	Feb 13, 1.30 p.m.	Feb 13, 9.30 p.m.
FOMC Minutes	Feb 21, 2.00 p.m.	Feb 21, 7.00 p.m.	Feb 22, 3.00 a.m.
U.S. Core PCE Price Index	Feb 29, 8.30 a.m.	Feb 29, 1.30 p.m.	Feb 29, 9.30 p.m.
China NBS Manufacturing PMI	Feb 29, 8.30 p.m.	Mar 1, 1.30 a.m.	Mar 1, 9.30 a.m.
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI	Feb 29, 8.45 p.m.	Mar 1, 1.45 a.m.	Mar 1, 9.45 a.m.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI	Mar 1, 10.00 a.m.	Mar 1, 3.00 p.m.	Mar 1, 11.00 p.m.
China Balance of Trade	Mar 6, 11.30 p.m.	Mar 7, 4.30 a.m.	Mar 7, 12.30 p.m.
U.S. Non Farm Payrolls	Mar 8, 8.30 a.m.	Mar 8, 1.30 p.m.	Mar 8, 9.30 p.m.
China Inflation Rate YoY	Mar 8, 8.30 p.m.	Mar 9, 1.30 a.m.	Mar 9, 9.30 a.m.
U.S. Inflation Numbers	Mar 12, 8.30 a.m.	Mar 12, 12.30 p.m.	Mar 12, 8.30 p.m.
China Industrial Production YoY	Mar 17, 10.00 p.m.	Mar 18, 2.00 a.m.	Mar 18, 10.00 a.m.
U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision and Fed Press Conference	Mar 20, 2.00 p.m.	Mar 20, 6.00 p.m.	Mar 21, 2.00 a.m.
U.S. Core PCE Price Index	Mar 29, 8.30 a.m.	Mar 29, 12.30 p.m.	Mar 29, 8.30 p.m.
China NBS Manufacturing PMI	Mar 30, 9.30 p.m.	Mar 31, 1.30 a.m.	Mar 31, 9.30 a.m.
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI	Mar 31, 9.45 p.m.	Apr 1, 1.45 a.m.	Apr 1, 9.45 a.m.

Source: CME Group, Quikstrike

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