At-a-Glance
Key Takeaways with Craig
US Equity Index prices rallied and US Treasury prices fell (yields rose), after the September Employment Situation report showed more job creation than was forecast. Specifically, the 10-Year Treasury Yield future was up by over 13 basis points and approaching 4% again, while the 2-Year was up by over 21.5.
CME’s Fed Funds futures also reacted to the news, which was reflected in the FedWatch tool. That tool now shows the probability of a 50 basis point cut at the November FOMC meeting approaching 0, which is down from 32% yesterday and 53% a week ago.
As we normally do on Friday’s below is the recap of net price and volatility changes on the week, using QuikStrike and CVOL data.
- WTI Crude Oil prices and CVOL spiked higher on the week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased.
- Gold futures prices wound up almost exactly where they began, while CVOL in the options declined.
- As we said earlier, US Treasury yields continued to rise, as did CVOL in CME’s Treasury options markets. The curve between the 2s and 10s flattened this week.
- Perhaps related to the rising yields, the Euro FX future was down by about 2% against the US Dollar on the week and CVOL rose in the options markets.
- And finally, after today’s rally, major US Equity Indexes wound up nearly unchanged on the week, though implied volatility in the options markets was bid higher.
As always, we wish all our In FOCUS readers a safe and happy Autumn weekend and we’ll be back on Monday to report on the first full week of October trading.
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