At-a-Glance
Key Takeaways with Craig
US Equities traded mixed to begin the last week in March, with the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 higher and Nasdaq prices declining. In the options markets, implied volatility (“vol”) in the E-mini S&P 500 options declined while it was nearly unchanged on the day in the Nasdaq-100 options. US Treasury yields were active again today with the Micro 2-Year Yield future up by over 22 basis points (“bps”) and the Micro 10-Year Yield up by about 16 bps. According to CVOL, vol in the Treasury options came down from 2-Years through 30-Years, but remains elevated relative to historical levels. As you can see in the CVOL graph below, the skew in the 2-Year and 10-Year yields diverged today. In the 10-Year yield, the Calls were bid over the Puts today while the opposite was true in the 2-Year yield.
CME Energy markets were also active today as WTI Crude Oil futures prices were up by over 5% and Natural Gas prices were down by about 5.25%. CVOL levels in Nat Gas options rose with today’s price break and is trading near 2 month highs, while in the WTI Crude Oil options, CVOL continued to decline. Finally, Gold prices were down by about 1% today and volatility in the options markets remains elevated relative to the last 3 months.
Along with the increase in short term treasury yields, CME’s Fed Funds markets were also active; a move that was reflected in the FedWatch tool. That tool shows a 45% probability for a 25 basis point hike to the Fed Funds target rate at the May 3rd meeting; up from just 17% on Friday. The probability for no change at that same meeting correspondingly declined from about 83% to 55%. Also, on Friday, the FedWatch tool reflected a 25% chance that we’d see a 25 basis point CUT by the June 14th meeting; today, that was down to an 8% chance.
Todays Featured Videos
Today's Future Price Action
Traders Resources
The information in the market commentaries have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and expressly disclaim all liability. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. The information on this site compiled by CME Group is for general purposes only. All information and data herein is provided as-is. Additionally, all examples on this site are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. CME Group, its affiliates and any third party information and content providers expressly disclaim all liability with respect to the information and data contained herein including without limitation, any liability with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any data. You use the data herein solely at your own risk. All data and information provided herein is not intended for trading purposes or for trading advice. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and superseded by official CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX rules. Current rules should be consulted in all cases concerning contract specifications.
Neither futures trading nor swaps trading are suitable for all investors, and each involves the risk of loss. Due to the leveraged nature of futures trading and swaps trading, it is possible to lose more than the amount deposited in a position. Therefore, traders should not deposit more funds than they can afford to lose without negatively affecting their lifestyles. A trader cannot expect to profit on each trade, and should only devote a small amount of their available funds to each trade. All references to options refer to options on futures.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
CME Group, the Globe Logo, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is the trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Each of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (ARBN 103 432 391), The Board of Trade of the City of Chicago Inc (ARBN 110 594 459), the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc (ARBN 113 929 436) and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (ARBN 622 016 193) is a registered foreign company in Australia and holds an Australian market licence.
This site does not constitute a prospectus, product disclosure statement or legal advice, nor is it a recommendation to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or to utilise or refrain from utilising any particular service. Readers should consult their legal advisors for legal advice in connection with the matters covered on this site.
