Topic 1: Bitcoin halving dates

Image 1: Fundamentals: The supply and demand in the Oil market as per EIA
Source: Bloomberg

There has been a lot of news with bitcoin this year. The ETF news, while well-expected, has been a major catalyst. A 70% move higher on a year-to-date basis would have anyone talking about the asset. However, as we get into April, perhaps the biggest news in the Bitcoin market will be the Bitcoin halving expected on April 19. You can see from the chart above how the reward to bitcoin miners has been halved about every four years in practice. In reality, it occurs every time 210,000 blocks are added to the chain. This regulated decrease in the supply of bitcoin, as the rewards the miners earn for validating the block becomes the new supply of bitcoin in the market, is one of the principal reasons many like to own bitcoin in the first place particularly with the supply of fiat currency not regulated and certainly not dwindling.


Image 1: Long-term chart of bitcoin with vertical lines at each halving

Image 1: Long-term chart of bitcoin with vertical lines at each halving
Source: Bloomberg

Image 2: Assets under management of Bitcoin ETFs


Image 3: Changes in Bitcoin options and futures open interest at CME Group


Image 4: Generic Front Month Technicals


Image 5: Implied volatility term structure for Bitcoin options


Image 6: Implied volatility by strike and volatility surface for Bitcoin options


Image 7: Expected return for a BTCJ4 1 by 2 call spread overlaid on top of a long futures position