Image 1: Front month futures for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil and hypothetical soybean crush

Image 1: Front month futures for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil and hypothetical soybean crush
Source: Bloomberg

Anyone involved in the soybean complex is likely familiar multiple elements of this chart. Whether one looks at soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or the soybean crush, all prices are at or near the lowest levels we have seen since 2020. In the case of the crush, we are at the lowest levels we have tended to get to over the last several years. Certainly, the bumper crop in Brazil and the discount of these beans to U.S. prices are not helping matters at all. However, one bright spot has been the increased demand for soybeans coming from renewable fuel. While U.S. export numbers have been trending lower the last several years, this domestic demand from a growing source could be a source of optimism. This week, I wanted to highlight the dynamics of the soybean market to some who may not be as familiar with much of the inner workings. This could create new opportunities for those who have only been focusing on one or two of these parts.


Image 2: Commitment of Traders report for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil

Image 2: Commitment of Traders report for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil
Image 2: Commitment of Traders report for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil

Image 3: CME Institute for futures and options education resources


Image 4: Soybean crush price technical analysis


Image 5: Cross correlation of soybeans, oil and meal


Image 6: CVOL and Skew for all Soybean products


Image 7: Volume and open interest for the Soybean products


Image 8: Implied volatility by strike for oil, meal and soybeans


Image 9: Expected return on a soybean meal, April short put spread vs. long calls