Many investors and portfolio managers will undoubtedly stay their course in 2022.  Others, though, may consider whether to make changes in their portfolios given (1) the shift toward a more neutral policy at the Federal Reserve (Fed), and (2) the abrupt change in the inflation landscape that occurred in 2021, ending over two and half decades of relative price stability and rising to the highest level since 1982.

As for real GDP, it is likely to decelerate materially after the 2021 rebound year.  This is totally natural, as steadier, slower growth typically follows a rapid rebound.  The implications are that the GDP slowdown is unlikely to be related to the shift toward a neutral Fed policy.

Figure 2

Figure 2: U.S. Real GDP Back on Trend

The Covid-Omicron impact in 2022 remains unclear.  We are still learning how infection and hospitalization rates will shift with this variant, or others that may follow.  However, the policy bias appears to be to avoid a repeat of the spring 2020 shutdowns, which reduces the probability of a return to economic distress.

While measured inflation may abate a little as 2022 progresses, the overall rate of inflation is likely to remain well above central bank targets, suggesting continued pressure for the Fed to follow through on its forward guidance to revert to a more neutral policy stance.  Indeed, federal funds futures suggest three to four quarter-percentage-point rate hikes in 2022 are possible.

Figure 3

Figure 3: U.S. Consumer Price Inflation

Figure 4

Figure 4: Implied Federal Funds Rate based on December 2022 Futures Contract

Putting this all together, risk management will be key as investors adapt to a more neutral Fed and a changed inflation landscape.  Potential asset flows due to portfolio shifts, essentially a Great Global Rebalancing, are likely to serve as the key drivers for elevated market volatility in 2022.

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All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.

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