Are you missing out on Soybean trading opportunities?

This is the first article of a series designed to help you maximize trading opportunities in the Soybean complex.


U.S Domestic Disappearance of Soybeans

U.S Domestic Disappearance of Soybeans
Source: USDA Oil Crops Yearbook

The percent of U.S. soybean meal exported varies dramatically by year. The Philippines is the primary recipient of U.S. soybean meal, with imported meal a pillar of the nation’s meat industry. Total domestic disappearance of soybeans in the United States has seen an upward trend in the last three decades, driven by demand for meal, oil and exports.

Top 10 Destinations for U.S. Soybean Meal Exports (kg)

Top 10 Destinations for U.S. Soybean Meal Exports (kg)
Source: UN Comtrade

Although the percentage of U.S. meal exported has been higher in recent years, U.S. soybean meal exports were observed to reach a record high in the marketing year ending September 2023, at 13.2 million tons. Soybean meal produced in the United States overwhelmingly falls under the U.S. Soy Sustainability Assurance Protocol, a verified framework ensuring sustainable sourcing of U.S. soy. Since 1980, soybeans in the United States, on average, use 47% less acres per bushel, 61% less water acre inches per bushel and 45% less BTU per bushel of energy. Greenhouse gas emissions and soil erosion have been reduced by 42% and 35% in terms of pounds of CO2e and tons of soil erosion per bushel, respectively. 

Total U.S. Disappearance of Soybean Meal

Total U.S. Disappearance of Soybean Meal
USDA Oil Crops Yearbook

Perhaps the most dynamic force in the soybean complex landscape over the past decade has been the increasing strength of Brazil as a producer and exporter and Brazil’s evolving relationship with China as that country’s imports grow. For the first decade of China’s growth in soybean importation, the United States was the primary country of origin. In the last decade, however, nearly 57% of soybeans imported by China were from Brazil. 

Soybean Imports to China by Origin

Soybean Imports to China by Origin
Source: UN Comtrade

Until the advent of biomass-based diesel and national blending mandates propelling soybean oil to the forefront of the biofuel landscape, soybean crushing was widely accepted to be motivated by demand for soybean meal. Now, with the renewable fuel standard sustaining a powerful policy market for soybean oil, meal and oil share the basis of demand for soybean production and crushing. Since the turn of the century, the share of domestic disappearance of soybean oil to renewable fuels increased from negligible to approaching 50% in the latest crop year. During that time, domestic crushing increased 35%, indicating that new crushing was driven by demand for fuel. This increase in crushing has, as discussed, transformed the soybean meal landscape.

As the soybean complex landscape evolves, CME Group will continue to be the foremost venue for hedging risk or expressing a market view. Learn more at www.cmegroup.com/soybeans

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