Understanding Major USDA Reports for Grains and Oilseed Markets in 2025

• Grain Stocks: Jan. 10, March 31, June 30 and Sep. 30 at 12:00 p.m. ET
• Prospective Plantings: March 31 at 12:00 p.m. ET
• Crop Progress: Weekly, April 7 through Nov. 24 at 4:00 p.m. ET
• Acreage: June 30 at 12:00 p.m. ET
• WASDE: Jan. 10, Feb. 11, March 11, Apr. 10, May 12, June 12, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 12, Oct. 9, Nov. 10 and Dec. 9, at 12:00 p.m. ET
• U.S. Export Sales: Every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (known as the WASDE, or alternatively, WSD) is a monthly report containing annual supply and demand forecasts of domestic and international wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton, with some coverage of sugar, meat, poultry eggs and milk. The report is released at 11:00 a.m. CT (12:00 p.m. ET) between the 8th and 12th calendar days of each month. 

The WASDE serves as perhaps the most important regular informer of supply and demand for domestic markets of corn, wheat and soybeans. Each month, industry players submit predictions to be aggregated by business intelligence firms Bloomberg LP and LSEG, with polling medians priced into futures markets by participants trading in anticipation of the number. When WASDE reports differ from polling expectation, the market responds: lower-than-expected ending stocks are bullish for futures prices, while larger-than-expected endstocks are bearish. In terms of market movement: corn, wheat and soybean endstocks are the numbers to watch, though constituent attributes may merit attention depending on the situation. 

The WASDE is compiled by the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WOAB) and is comprised of inputs from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), Economic Research Service (ERS), Farm Service Agency (FSA), Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Reporting on domestic acreage, yield and production is based on surveys conducted by the NASS. 

The significance of individual WASDE reports reflects crop seasonality. The May WASDE contains the first estimates for supply and demand for the new marketing year, and the August and September WASDE reports contain the first production estimates and forecasts for spring-planted crops such as corn. The May WASDE also contains the first production forecasting on winter wheat, continually updating crop year production numbers until October, at which point data is finalized. Production for the current-year crop of soybeans is initially forecast in August and finalized in November.

Alternatively referred to as Planting Intentions, Prospective Plantings is an annual report released at 11:00 a.m. CT (12:00 p.m. ET) on the last business day in March. Compiled and released by NASS, the report contains the expected planting acreage for the upcoming crop year, as well as the previous year’s harvest for principal crops. Surveys conducted by the NASS in the first two weeks of March serve as the basis for the report’s data. The 2024 report’s underlying March Agricultural Survey sampled approximately 71,800 farm operators via postal mail, email and telephone. 

Economist polling plays heavily into futures pricing leading up to the release of Prospective Plantings. Reported acreage in the March 28, 2024 report fell short of expectations, propelling December 2024 Corn futures up 15^4 cents (3.35%) on the day.‌

Acreage, which is released on the last business day of June, can be seen as an extension of Prospective Plantings. While Prospective Plantings reports intended acreage for principal crops for the upcoming crop year, Acreage reports planted crops, serving as an indicator of how well the reality of the crop year met expectations at its outset. As is the case for many reports, analyst polling affects price movement post release, whereby a release reporting less than expected acreage would have a bullish effect on markets;a release reporting more than expected acreage, bearish. 

In 2024, Corn whiplashed from the season’s Prospective Plantings, as reported acreage exceeded analyst expectations on the Acreage release, sending corn down 13^0 cents (3.00%) on the day.  From an open of 434^0 cents, December Corn rebounded from a low of 412^0 following the report, to close at 420^6.

Crop Progress is released at 3:00 p.m. CT (4:00 p.m. ET) on the first business day of each week, April through November. The report is comprised of data submitted from reporters who observe crop progress and environmental conditions in their respective area. Reporters are present in almost every county nationwide, and more than 75% of national farm acreage by respective crop is covered by the report. Crop Progress reports planting, fruiting, harvesting progress and overall condition of corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, rice, spring wheat, peanuts, barley, oats and winter wheat.

Grain Stocks is released on the last business day of January, March, June and September at 11:00 a.m. CT (12:00 p.m. ET) and describes stocks of wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower and mustard seed. The report enumerates stocks by state and by position (on- or off-farm), as well as the capacity of relevant facilities. Data is collected via survey from farm operators and operators of commercial enterprises such as mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals and processors. 

U.S. Export Sales is a weekly report produced by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Released each Thursday at 7:30 a.m. CT (8:30 a.m. ET) throughout the year, Export Sales covers new sales, buy-backs and outstanding foreign sales of wheat of various classes, cotton, feed grains, oilseeds, rice of various classes, hides and skins, beef and pork. According to the Foreign Agricultural Service, the origins of the report can be traced to Cold War tensions and concerns that private players were deriving unfair advantage from non-public export information. To ensure that all parties involved in the production and export of U.S. grain had access to up-to-date export sales data, Congress mandated the Export Sales Reporting program in 1973. The data is compiled from mandatory individual reporting of daily sales activity from U.S. exporters. 

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