Figure 1: Platinum is forecast to move into market deficit from 2023
Figure 2: Platinum-for-palladium-substitution as a proportion of overall automotive demand for platinum
Overview of the palladium market
Figure 3: Industrial and jewelery demand decline offsets automotive growth resulting in a flat overall demand profile for palladium, below that of pre-COVID records
Figure 4: Palladium is forecast to move into market surplus from 2025
Figure 5: Globally, palladium output from autocatalyst recycling is forecast to rise 52% on 2022 levels, rising by 1.2 Moz to 3.5 Moz in 2027 where security of supply and subsequent price movements incentivized the change
Background to substitution
Figure 6: Historic bidirectional substitution between platinum and palladium in gasoline and diesel drivetrains based on metal availability and economic viability, following a material surplus or deficit
Reverse substitution
Figure 7: Palladium substitution for platinum to commence in 2025, but it will take time to reverse out the embedded platinum substitution for palladium that will have occurred by then
