With prices increasing for food staples such as corn, soybeans and wheat, the role of “speculators” in the commodity markets has come into question. CME Group is taking a leading role to educate Congress and others about the fundamental factors impacting the markets and the important role speculators and other participants all play in our free markets. Check this site regularly to stay informed about our grain markets. We will add links as new information becomes available.

 Fundamental Factors Impacting Other Commodity Prices, updated July 30, 2008 (pdf)
 Fundamental Factors Affecting Agriculture Commodities, narrated video of pdf, July 11, 2008, with comments by David Lehman, director, Commodity Research and Product Development, CME Group


*NEW ITEMS* [updated August 22, 2008]

Facts and Fallacies About Commodity Investment Flows. Suki Cooper, Kevin Norrish and Amrita Sen; August 20, 2008, Risk News, reprinted from Futures Industry magazine.

Corn bonanza won't cut food prices: A fortunate mix of sunshine and rain is helping produce a bumper crop, but much of the grain will be used to make ethanol. Joshua Boak and Mike Hughlett; August 13, 2008, Chicago Tribune

An Introduction to Grain Calendar and Basis Swaps. Fred Seamon, associate director Research & Product Development, CME Group, July 2008 (Benefits and uses of cleared agriculture swaps.)

What’s Driving Food Prices? Phillip C. Abbott, Christopher Hurt, Wallace E. Tyner: July 2008, Farm Foundation (executive summary) (full report)

Interim Report on Crude Oil. July 2008, Interagency Task Force on Commodity Markets

An Energy Sarbox. Editorial; July 22, 2008, Wall Street Journal

Futures Imperfect. Dwight R. Sanders and Scott H. Irwin; July 20, 2008, New York Times

Same Good Earth, Different Harvests. Greg Burns, Alex Rodriquez, and Oscar Avila; July 13, 2008, Chicago Tribune

Restricting Speculators Will Not Reduce Oil Prices. Craig Pirrong; July 11, 2008, Wall Street Journal

Thinking Inside the Box to Quell Rising Fuel Costs. Stephen J. Hedges; July 8, 2008, Chicago Tribune 

Secret Report: Biofuel Caused Food Crisis. Aditya Chakrabortty; July 4, 2008, The Guardian

Speculators Fixing Oil Prices? Don’t Bet On It. July 2008, Institute for Energy Research

Oil Speculation. July 3, 2008, Financial Times (FT Lex)

Exchanges Up Defenses Against Moves To Curb Speculation. Doug Cameron; July 2, 2008, Dow Jones Newswires

For Love of Speculators* (*Well, at least respect what they do): Editorial. July 2, 2008, Chicago Tribune

Oil World Gathers Amid Blame Game Over Record Prices. July 1, 2008, Daily Times

Energy Chiefs Absolve Oil Speculators. Carola Hoyos; July 1, 2008, Financial Times (subscription required)

Who's Behind High Prices. Robert J. Samuelson; July 1, 2008, Washington Post

CME Group Congressional Testimonies and Speeches

July 11, 2008
(Written) Statement of Terrence A. Duffy, Executive Chairman of CME Group Inc.
Before the United States House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture

Testimony of Daniel J. Roth, President and Chief Executive Officer, National Futures Association. July 11, 2008, National Futures Association

June 26, 2008
Terry Duffy. World Agriculture Markets and the Role of Commodity Exchanges as a Forum for Price Discovery and Risk Management. Remarks to The Corporate Council on Africa, U.S. Africa Agribusiness Forum. Hyatt Regency Hotel, Chicago, Illinois.

June 17, 2008
(Oral) Statement of Terrence A. Duffy, Executive Chairman of CME Group Inc.
(Written) Statement of Terrence A. Duffy, Executive Chairman of CME Group Inc.
(Presentation) Fundamental Factors Affecting Agriculture Commodities
Before the United States Senate Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government of the Committee on Appropriations in Joint Session with the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry

May 15, 2008
Oral Statement of Terrence A. Duffy Executive Chairman of CME Group Inc. Before the House Agriculture Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities and Risk Management

April 22, 2008
Statement of Charlie Carey, Vice Chairman, CME Group for the CFTC Agriculture Roundtable Challenges In Global Agricultural Markets

In the News

What Onions Teach Us About Oil Prices. John Birger; June 30, 2008, Fortune

Easy Target, But Not the Right One. Joe Nocera; June 28, 2008, New York Times

Craig Donohue, CME Group Outlook. June 27, 2008, CNBC (video)

Fundamentals, not speculators, are to blame for rising prices. Francisco Blanch; June 25, 2008, Financial Times (subscription required)

Review and Outlook: Political Speculators. June 24, 2008, Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Driving Away Oil Speculators May Not Help. Mark Gongloff; June 24, 2008, Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Farm Prices' Roundabout Path to Market. Avi Salzman; June 24, 2008. BusinessWeek

Terry Duffy, Market Forces. June 20, 2008, Fox News (video)

Flooding Means Higher Food Prices. June 18, 2008, Fox News (video)

CME Group's Duffy speaks with Bloomberg on Capitol Hill. June 17, 2008, Bloomberg

CME’s Duffy says speculators not causing pain at gas pump. Paul Merion; June 17, 2008, Chicago Business

Flooded Farmland and Commodities. Bill O’Neill; June 16, 2008, CNBC (video)

A Bull Market Sees the Worst in Speculators. Diana B. Henriques; June 13, 2008, New York Times 

Terry Duffy, Street Smarts, Mad About Options. Kevin Cook; June 12, 2008, Options News Network (video)

Severe Weather Floods Midwest. Cynthia Bowers; June 11, 2008, CBS News (video)

Paulson won’t blame speculators. Ron Orol; June 10, 2008, TheDeal.com

Craig Donohue on CNBC's The Call. June 6, 2008, CNBC (video)

CME Group Press Releases

Jun 03, 2008
CME Group Statement in Response to CFTC Agricultural Market Initiatives 

Jul 29, 2008
Clearing for Agricultural OTC Swaps, Commodity Futures Trading Agricultural Advisory Committee, CME Group (presentation)

Apr 22, 2008
CME Group Requests CFTC Approval to Offer Cleared OTC Grain Swaps

CME Group Market Education

June 12, 2008
Navigating the Uncharted Waters of Weather and Supply & Demand Fundamentals: 2008 Corn, Soybean and Wheat Market Prospects
Drew Lerner, president, World Weather, Inc. and Steve Freed, vice president of Research, ADM Investor Services [video: archived webinar]

March 25, 2008
A New Era in Grains and Oilseeds
Joseph Victor, Vice President of Marketing, Allendale, Inc., and Dr. Robert Wisner, Extension Economist, Iowa State University [video: archived webinar]

Market Studies and Other Resources

Independent Research by EKA on the role of Institutional Investors in Rising Commodity Prices.

CFTC Fact Sheet on Claim of Speculation in Oil Market. June 2008. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing? Sanders, Irwin, and Merrin; June 2008, Dept. of Agriculture and Consumer Economics, Univ. of Ill. at Urbana-Champaign.

The Global Food Crisis: Facts and Opportunities. BV Krishnamurthy; May 8, 2008, Harvard Business Publishing

CME Group Research

Speculative Position Limits and Hedge Fund Exemptions. Fred Seamon, associate director, Research and Product Development, CME Group, July 2008.

 View Archived Agricultural Commodity Information

Futures Imperfect. Dwight R. Sanders and Scott H. Irwin; July 20, 2008, New York Times